Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) runs during an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers, Thursday, December 12, 2024, in Santa Clara, Calif.
The first action of Week 15 set a low bar for the rest of the slate to clear.
The Rams' 12-6 upset victory over the 49ers as 3-point underdogs on Thursday Night Football was one of the worst games of the year. Thankfully, there wasn't a Sunday Sweats-type betting column devoted to that slog.
Losing a 49ers -2.5 play in the pick'em was enough. An anytime touchdown wager certainly wouldn't have cashed considering there were no touchdowns.
It left nowhere to go but up, and Sunday Sweats is trying to follow that mantra with a second straight winning week after bouncing back from a recent skid with $705.79 in profit during Week 14.
Find all of Week 15's wagers below. This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Non point spread bets placed inside of the weekly NFL pick'em and elsewhere will also be accounted for here. Make sure to check back to lasvegassun.com Sunday for one final bet, on a prop in the Raiders' gameday section that will also be attached to the Sunday Sweats record.
Tasty Total (14-12, $360): New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars over 40.5 points (Caesars/William Hill)
$220 to win $200
There's a reason the Jets have gone 8-5 to the over this season; Their defense is commanding too much respect in the market. This is not the unit that emerged as one of the NFL's best the last two seasons and has quietly been just as big of a problem as their mediocre offense. New York is currently No. 19 in defense by the DVOA ratings. Jacksonville is No. 32. Jacksonville might not be horrific enough to return Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers to his four-time MVP form and, similarly, New York might not be so bad that Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones can pass as a decent starter. But they'll both provide openings, enough openings that a game played in 70-degree conditions at EverBank Field should lead to both teams scoring in the 20s.
Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (5-10, -$1,092): Washington Commanders -1.5 and Buffalo Bills +8.5 at -125 (Caesars/William Hill)
$250 to win $200
This actually falls short of qualifying as a classic, Stanford Wong teaser. Yes, both sides move through the 3 and 7 but the total on Buffalo at Detroit is too high mathematically. That's not a big enough bother to deter me from this bet. I think Buffalo wins outright and therefore the +2.5 line is too big to begin with. Getting the Bills at +8.5 is a clear teaser side even if it doesn't match with all the rules. Washington doesn't need any disclaimers. The Commanders are taking on a Saints team full of backups, including at quarterback where Jake Haener steps in for the injured Derek Carr, in a relatively low-totaled (over/under 43.5 points) game. If Washington is indeed the playoff team it's looked like all season, it should have no problems winning outright in New Orleans.
Moneyline Parlay (2-11, -$1,001.92): Indianapolis Colts, Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears round robin (4x1, 4x2, 4x3) (Circa Sports)
$220 to win $3,248.31
The first round robin in the history of Weekend Wagers may have lost last week, but it didn't leave the column completely empty-handed. With two sides coming through (unfortunately it was the favored Chiefs and 49ers), I still got back $45.79 on a $220 bet. Not the best return but enough to increase my desire to cash one of these -- and at least hit three of four -- before the end of the season. I'll pivot to a more traditional setup this week and tie together the four underdogs I like the most on the moneyline. Circa made that plan easy as it had the best, or close to the best prices, on all the teams -- the Colts at +176, the Bills at +122, the Seahawks at +119 and the Bears at +280. I'm pretty favorite-heavy on the Week 15 card overall, but this is a hope that the underdogs that I like can push beyond simply covering the spread.
Player Prop (14-10, $534): Jayden Reed over 39.5 receiving yards at -114 (Boyd Sports)
$228 to win $200
Fans were tempted to put up missing posters of the Packers' slot receiver last Thursday after he failed to register a single catch against the Lions. That's unlikely to repeat again all season, especially here when packages featuring Reed should be put to more use against the Seahawks. Seattle is below average in defending both slot receivers and the middle of the field in the passing game, per DVOA. Those are areas of strength for Detroit. Reed is Green Bay's leading receiver on the year for a reason. The Packers utilize him liberally in matchups where it makes sense. This is a matchup where it will make sense.
Allen had three rushing touchdowns last week and has found the end zone in four straight games overall. Why wouldn't he continue the hot streak at Ford Field in Detroit? I realize that's rudimentary analysis, but the Lions have been among the worst teams in the NFL in defending mobile quarterbacks dating back to last season. I can't get to Allen being a plus-price to score a touchdown here. I'd look for another bet if he was even -110, but +120 is too far off from his likelihood to score. This is the highest-totaled game of the season, and Allen is the Bills' second-leading touchdown scorer on the year behind running back James Cook. He should reach double-digits in rushing touchdowns for the second time of his career Sunday.
Lookahead Line (9-8, -$17.50): Baltimore Ravens -4.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15 (STN Sports)
$330 to win $300
Fading the Steelers might be one of the biggest reasons for my disappointing NFL betting season so far, but I just can't stop. Here we go again. Baltimore was a 3.5-point favorite in this game at Pittsburgh just three weeks ago. Sure, the Ravens lost 18-16 but the score was not descriptive of the game. Baltimore had a net 2-yard per play advantage but missed a series of field goals and posted a -3 turnover margin. The last two factors are highly unlikely to repeat. The Ravens deserve more than a one-point adjustment in going from playing on the road to playing at home. They dwarf the Steelers by any season-long metric, and it's about time for that to start showing on the field.
Future Finding (0-2, -$400): Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC at +550 (South Point)
$300 to win $1,650
This is a logical follow of the lookahead bet, especially when considering both teams' games this week. Baltimore is currently two games behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North standings, but faces the New York Giants this week as the biggest favorite (-16.5) in any NFL game so far this season. The Steelers meanwhile are a 6-point underdog at the Eagles. If those projected outcomes hold, then next week could be a chance for Baltimore to take control of the division and the guarantee of at least one home playoff game that accompanies it. Baltimore has been the most efficient team in the AFC this season even if its record indicates otherwise. It feels like an inevitably that one day this Lamar Jackson-led version of the team will reach a Super Bowl. Maybe the Ravens' breakthrough comes this year.
Nonfootball Play (8-5, $1,045): Gonzaga -2.5 -115 vs. Connecticut at Madison Square Garden (BetMGM)
$230 to win $200
Gonzaga has been better than Connecticut in all major areas this year, and it's not particularly close. The Zags are neck in neck with Auburn for having the most efficient offense in the nation, which should be a major problem for a Huskies team that's been lost defensively. Connecticut rates No. 88 in the nation for defensive efficiency per kenpom.com. This is not the same team that's won back-to-back national championships, even though the betting market has been stubborn to drop off those priors through the first two months of the season. Gonzaga should come in focused and sharp after dropping a 90-89 loss to Kentucky in Seattle as 6.5-point favorites in its last game. That's more bad news for Connecticut.