CHICAGO, ILLINOIS, US - Food companies and consumers have breathed a sigh of relief after futures prices declined over the past few months. The futures trade and producers, however, have been seeking reasons to have hope for higher prices. Weather is always a key factor in this tug of war, and it appears that for the next few weeks and possibly months weather may not have a key role to play in futures prices. La Niña has failed to evolve as the US National Oceanic Administration's ENSO model repeatedly has predicted for this year, and weather either has improved or soon will be improving in South and North America. World Weather, Inc. and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology believe that La Niña either will not evolve at all in the balance of 2024 or that it will be a marginal event. Traditional weather anomalies bringing drought to eastern Argentina and southern Brazil while torrents of rain occur in center west and center south Brazil during the heart of summer seem to be a little doubtful in this scenario and certainly the distribution of rainfall in recent weeks has lent no support for drought.

Dryness also has been a feature in the United States, eastern Ukraine into Russia's Southern Region and Kazakhstan, raising concern about world wheat production. Adding to that concern was Western Australia and South Australia dryness that was thought to be cutting into production. However, the latest data seem to discount the dryness in Australia with production still expected to be above the 10-year average. For Russia and eastern Ukraine, the situation may be different with winter crops struggling to establish normally after many months of well below normal precipitation.

Time is ticking away for Russia and Ukraine to get timely rainfall for improved wheat, barley and rye establishment before dormancy sets in. The poor establishment of winter crops will raise the potential for more-than-usual winterkill during times of extreme weather during the winter. For now, that issue does not seem to be stimulating much market interest. Perhaps that is because of ideal weather in China and northern India for their winter crops. Conditions in Europe are a bit more mixed with too much moisture in France and some drier biased conditions in southeastern Europe. None of the adverse conditions seem to be sustaining a market rally because of the lower demand for grain.

Some market interests recently have tried to light a fire to the unusually dry autumn weather that has been dominating North America. Certainly, the dryness in Canada, northern Mexico and the US Great Plains, western and northern Midwest and Pacific Northwest cannot be ignored. Some forecasters attribute the dryness in North America to an ongoing drought pattern and are linking a continuation of such conditions to La Niña or the potential that La Niña eventually will develop. Confidence of such an evolution by this meteorologist is quite low. In fact, the odds are relatively good that North America weather will change just as that in South America seems to have changed.

Dryness in the United States and Canada this autumn is tightly aligned with a repeating pattern from 1952. That pattern has been reinforced with neutral ENSO conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) and a prolonged negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

It is important to note that dryness in 1952 in September and October was just as intense as that of 2024. The biggest difference has been from the excessive rain and flooding associated with hurricanes Francine and Helene. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones generally are not cyclical events. Their randomness can change other prevailing weather patterns and that was the case in the southeastern United States this fall. However, the hurricanes had no influence on weather in the Great Plains, the northern or western Midwest, Canada, Mexico or the Pacific Northwest. For those areas, the weather pattern was much like that of 1952 with unusual dryness prevailing in many areas.

Now that the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean is winding down, the parallel pattern of 1952-53 should have greater influence at least for the next several weeks and/or few months. This repeating cycle suggests the Tennessee River Basin and portions of the southeastern United States will remain dry biased in November while rain falls in the southern Plains and in a strip from the central Plains (hard red winter wheat areas) into the Great Lakes region. The pattern also suggests some moisture in the southwestern United States, although confidence in that is low. Portions of the lower Midwest will continue to see below-normal rainfall in November if this pattern prevails. There also may be some dryness in a part of the upper Midwest and in the Pacific Northwest.

The Pacific Northwest is expected to get a break from dryness in December while parts of the Midwest and Tennessee River Basin keep their lighter-than-usual rainfall pattern in place. Hard red winter wheat areas are expected to benefit from improved rainfall in November and timely rain in December, and the Midwest wheat crop should get some timely rain.

In the meantime, South America weather will not be ideal for November and December, but it should be sufficiently good enough to keep crop prospects looking good for corn, soybeans and other crops. That, in combination with good conditions in China and India and improving weather in Europe, will not leave much support for dramatic rises in futures prices - not based on weather alone. There still will be concern for Russia and Australia output, but the losses in both areas are unlikely to get larger, keeping a lid on market appreciation due to weather - at least for now.