When you say the "bottom" of the NBA's Western Conference, it feels like a misnomer. This season, you're talking about two teams.
Amazingly, 11 of the West's 15 teams played .500 or better in 2023-24, and two that didn't -- the Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs -- have much higher hopes this time around. Overall, 13 teams will be in the playoff mix entering the season, which is a problem when only eight teams qualify. No matter how it shakes out, there will be some disappointed teams and fans in April.
And then there are the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz. While the rest of the West arms up -- nearly every one of the other 13 teams is out at least one future first-round pick as a result of a win-now move -- the Blazers and Jazz are biding their time with young players and the hope of draft-lottery riches in 2025. It's easy to peg them as the bottom two teams in the conference, but differentiating the other 13 clubs is a more onerous task.
Nonetheless, I must try. Here is my forecast on how the bottom (non-playoff teams) of the West will shake out with my projected records and why (we'll dissect the rest of the league later this week):
The Blazers will be bad, yes, but that badness also will be compounded by the fact that nobody else in the West will be bad ... well, except for the Jazz when they likely bail on the season in February again.
While playing 52 games against the West rather than against the East likely costs the Blazers a couple of wins, the roster is the bigger issue. Portland is a lineup in search of a leading man with Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton all capable of being secondary weapons but each incapable of carrying an alpha-level usage burden efficiently.
The hope is that Scoot Henderson improves, but after his shaky rookie season, the bar needs to be reset for Year 2. Can he be a rotation-caliber player this season, as opposed to somebody who plays a lot because he was the third pick in the draft? Henderson made progress in the second half of last season, but he'll have to continue to improve his balance and footwork as a shooter and, perhaps even more importantly, refine his wild finishing around the cup.
High-flying Shaedon Sharpe is the other hope for a big step forward. However, his injury-shortened 2023-24 season evidenced little progress from the year before. He's electrifying in the air but needs to show more dexterity as a dribbler and shoot more consistently from the perimeter. He's also out to start the season thanks to a preseason shoulder injury.
I'm bullish on rookie rim-protector Donovan Clingan, although the presence of Ayton and Robert Williams III (if healthy) clouds his path toward regular minutes. However, Portland's best all-around player might be newly arrived forward Deni Avdija, an elite defender who can double as a bruising point forward. The cost was eye-opening for an allegedly rebuilding team -- two firsts and two seconds -- but Avdija is only 23, and his contract is of great value through 2028.
With Avdija and Clingan joining a cast that includes Matisse Thybulle, Toumani Camara, Williams and Grant, Portland should put up a respectable defensive performance. The Blazers were 23rd while using a rotating cast of replacement-level players in the second half of the season. In 2024-25, they should be in the top half of the league for as long as they genuinely compete.
As for the offense ... there's the rub. The lack of floor spacing and shooting is a big problem, even with a full season of Simons. Avdija and Clingan do nothing to solve it. Having Henderson and/or Sharpe become better than a 1-in-3 proposition from the 3-point line would go a long way here.
So ... why 20 wins? Portland won 21 games last season but had the league's second-worst net rating and was fortunate to eke even that low win total from its point margin. The rotation is better than 21 wins if it stays together all season and could even push for 30 if everything goes right. Alas, that feels like a long shot in reality. One has to price in the distinct possibility of one or more of Simons, Grant, Ayton and Williams being traded by the end of the season.
The final factor is gamesmanship in the Sag for Flagg race. The smart money is on the Blazers doing whatever it takes to navigate into one of the NBA's three worst records, positioning Portland with the best possible lottery odds.
The Jazz have essentially played two straight 50-game seasons. Will they go for a three-peat? With Flagg being the big prize in the upcoming draft and a first-round pick owed to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it doesn't land in the top 10, it sure seems likely.
The Jazz were 26-26 at the 52-game mark each of the past two seasons before going 11-19 in the last 30 in 2022-23 and embarking on a 5-25 blaze to glory this past spring. On the one hand, this has been a specular waste of Lauri Markkanen's prime. On the other, it's hard to argue with the logic that tanking its way into a second star is Utah's best path out of mediocrity. The recent extension for Markkanen assures he'll be in Utah through 2029, and the Jazz will presumably start trying to win for real in 2025-26.
In the meantime, the Jazz will be fun to watch when they legitimately try. Markkanen is a knockdown shooter and one of the league's best dunkers, while Collin Sexton had a breakout season in 2023-24 at age 25 and seems like a renegotiate-and-extend candidate next summer if he has another strong season. Walker Kessler regressed last season but can be an elite rim protector, and he might be a useful trade chip even if the Jazz aren't sold on him as a long-term answer in the middle.
Beyond that, Utah's bevy of recent draft picks will get plentiful chances to prove themselves. Between Cody Williams, Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, Isaiah Collier, Brice Sensabaugh and Kyle Filipowski, that's six first- or second-year players vying for developmental time. Can any of them play?
Figuring out the answer to that question is probably the biggest story for Utah this season, especially with three more firsts on the way in June. (In addition to their pick, the Jazz will have likely late first-rounders from Cleveland and Minnesota.)
The Jazz also have some more aggressive scenarios where they could make a play for elite talent using their hoard of future firsts and expiring contracts. Realistically, that type of move seems unlikely until the offseason, especially with a possible lottery prize like Flagg (or, in a deep draft, other elite talent like Baylor's VJ Edgecombe and Rutgers' Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper) in the offing.
As they open their new building, let's take a moment to appreciate the once-unfathomable fact that the Clippers -- the Clippers! -- have the NBA's longest streak of winning seasons at 13.
Will it get to 14? Ehh ...
Between the departure of Paul George and the iffy status of Kawhi Leonard, the 2024-25 version of the Clippers may bear only a passing resemblance to the team that took off after the James Harden trade and won 51 games a season ago. Faced with increasingly stiff collective bargaining agreement second-apron penalties for an old, injury-prone team, LA made the difficult decision to pivot by not giving George a four-year max contract and watching him depart for Philly.
An accelerant of that decision may have been the status of Leonard's knee. After he once again failed to get to the finish line in the 2024-25 season, it's fair to ask if he's ever going to get through the majority of a season again. His playing 68 games last season was a big reason the Clippers stayed in the West's top four, but it was the first time he had played more than 60 games since 2017. It also might be the last -- he was dropped from Team USA when his knee wasn't ready to go, and he's out to start the season.
Any Clippers projection centers heavily on what we can expect from Leonard at age 33, both in terms of performance and availability. Unfortunately, I'm inclined to take a pessimistic view of his 2024-25 availability.
Looking at the rest of the roster, the Clippers were fourth in offense and 17th in defense last season but might flip that script. Without George, they are lacking in secondary playmaking and shooting, but the additions of Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn should fortify them on the defensive side. The Clips also rendezvoused with old amie Nic Batum and will hope Mo Bamba gives them a stretch capability at backup center that Mason Plumlee and Daniel Theis couldn't.
The availability questions around Leonard (and to a lesser extent Harden) are so troubling, however, because there just isn't a third-best player here. That's where they'll miss George.
It's not that Terance Mann, Ivica Zubac and Jones are bad players, but they aren't centerpieces either. (Mann and Zubac signed fair extensions this offseason, adding some tradeable salary ballast for future moves if needed.) Ditto for likely sixth man and possible starter Norman Powell. The lack of shot creation up and down the roster could leave the Clips scraping the barrel with the second unit, possibly depending on the likes of Bones Hyland or reclamation project Kevin Porter Jr. to generate shots.
With no control over their next five drafts, the Clippers lack any tanking incentive but also no upgrade capability. As their two best players hit their mid-30s, LA's shrewd front office will need to use all its creativity to keep this ship off the rocks. Never underestimate this group's ability to pull rabbits out of a hat -- think back to the Blake Griffin trade, for instance -- and that might keep this party rolling a bit longer. Even now, on the nights when Leonard and Harden are both available, the Clippers will be a tough out for anyone.
However, LA does have future cap space scenarios, especially in the summer of 2026. And that makes you wonder about an entirely different outcome, where the Clippers fight the good fight until February but pivot at the trade deadline to whatever comes next.
Sure, the Spurs should be bad, but Victor Wembanyama might be so ridiculously good that he vaults San Antonio into postseason contention by himself and screws up the chance to get another elite talent to put next to him in a loaded 2025 draft.
The Spurs at least added some veteran help in the form of Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes and added a likely long-term keeper in the draft in Connecticut guard Stephon Castle. This is huge for a team that needed to replace catastrophically bad minutes from its second-line players with just run-of-the-mill solidness.
However, Wembanyama's ascent also may shine a harsher light on some other roster issues: a bad extension for Zach Collins, Jeremy Sochan's offensive non-development and a team that ranked just 22nd in defense despite Wembanyama nearly winning NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
Offensively, at least, things should be better. The Spurs discovered they were allowed to shoot 3-pointers last season but finished only 28th in percentage. Adding Barnes (38.7 percent last season, 37.9 percent career) should help that, although the roster is still dotted with too many mediocre-to-bad shooters. Adding Paul should shove Malaki Branham into a more minor role after a tank commander performance in his sophomore season, while forward Keldon Johnson likely is capable of better than he showed in his sixth-man role in 2023-24.
Even in a 60-loss season, there were a few small victories. Scrap-heap pickups Julian Champagnie and Sandro Mamukelashvili look like they might be legitimate rotation players. Tre Jones was a win as a second-round pick, although he's a free agent after the season. Devin Vassell is a plus starter if they can keep him on the court (he's injured again to start the season) and is just beginning a five-year extension.
The Spurs also have some options because Barnes and Paul have tradeable contracts. Nobody would be shocked if the Spurs keep them until the trade deadline to show the kids how to play real basketball and then collect assets for them in February. The Spurs also have cap space and an unprotected pick from the Hawks coming their way in 2025, when they might make a more concerted effort to vault up the standings. (The top-10 protected pick from Chicago from the DeMar DeRozan trade seems likely to be ... "managed" ... to stay with the Bulls.)
Nonetheless, the story of the Spurs' 2024-25 season likely revolves around two people. The first is Wembanyama -- how great he can be, how quickly he can get there and how many games he can play at his unusual size. The second, more uncomfortable one, is Gregg Popovich and whether the all-time great coach still has his fastball at 75.
Everything that could go wrong for Memphis last season did. Now the question is how much juice is left in a roster that endured significant losses from the team that won 107 combined games in 2021-22 and 2022-23.
That isn't immediately noticeable, because the top-line core remains impressive: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are All-Star-caliber players in their mid-20s at the point, wing and big positions. That's a sweet place to start.
However, the team's depth has been gutted since 2022. The Grizzlies lost Kyle Anderson to a roster numbers game and Dillon Brooks to a financial numbers game, surrendered De'Anthony Melton to a draft-night heat check and sent out two other firsts to turn Tyus Jones into Marcus Smart. Meanwhile, Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke suffered catastrophic injuries, reducing an enviable center rotation to rubble, and Luke Kennard aged in dog years.
The biggest question in Memphis remains Morant. With his thin frame and contact-heavy playing style, can he stay healthy enough to propel the Grizzlies forward after playing only nine games last season and an average of 42.3 over the past three? Perhaps more importantly, can he avoid the other off-court foolishness that sullied his 2022-23 campaign in particular?
Other, deeper questions loom. Taylor Jenkins is still the head coach, but the Grizzlies fired nearly his entire staff over the summer. It's fair to wonder if at least one of the replacements is being evaluated as a potential successor. At the very least, this is miles from vote-of-confidence territory, despite Memphis mostly exceeding expectations in the four seasons before last.
Aside from their big three, the Grizzlies are now betting heavily on post-2020 drafts that have yet to yield much, even after dumping Ziaire Wiliams on Brooklyn. Gigantic Zach Edey, selected ninthvanv, is a potential opening-day starter if he can show any competence at all defending pick-and-roll. Second-rounders Vince Williams and GG Jackson seem to have lapped other previous first-rounders (Jake LaRavia, Santi Aldama and the departed Williams and David Roddy) as key pieces, although Jackson's foot injury will keep him out for at least the start of the season.
The question marks don't stop there. Did the Grizzlies buy Smart's decline years, or does he have more left in the tank than he showed in last season's injury-shortened campaign? Will Kennard's knees allow him to provide the extra floor-spacer this team desperately needs? Can LaRavia establish himself after a strong summer league? Can Aldama be more than a once-every-two-weeks tease?
There are scenarios where enough of these questions have positive answers that the Grizzlies get back into the West's top eight, or even the top four. But this is a much more challenging conference than it was three years ago, and Memphis has gone backward while most of the competition has surged ahead. The Grizzlies will likely need the peak versions of Morant, Bane and Jackson for 200 games or so to stay out of the lottery.
The Rockets are 10th in my projected standings but No. 1 with an asterisk on the NBA League Pass rankings. If I can give you one piece of advice this season, it's this: Watch Houston. I'm not sure any team has had this many good young players at the same time since Oklahoma City drafted three future MVPs nearly two decades ago.
But Houston is probably still a year away from blowing up on the league, just because so many of these players are still in their formative stages. The Rockets also have to navigate a search process, figuring out who can do what and how they play with one another. Inevitably, that will involve some failed experiments. None of their talented youngsters is a certified star yet, and we can't guarantee one will be a top-10 player in the league in two years.
On the other hand, they have a lot of irons in the future-star fire. Several players here could be All-Stars by the time they're 25, and the overall athleticism up and down the roster is terrifying. While the arrivals of Fred VanVleet and the aforementioned Brooks last season brought some grown-up discipline and massively improved the defense (with a nudge from head coach Ime Udoka), Houston's big story is the seven players aged 23 or younger who have established a solid chance of being at least a long-term starter, if not more.
Big man Alperen Şengün is the furthest along at the moment after he was among the league's most-improved players last season. He also represents an interesting decision point for the future. It seems likely the Rockets won't extend his deal and preserve a below-market $16.2 million cap hold that could allow them to be players in free agency before re-signing him next summer. (Side note: Too much is being made of Houston going on an 11-game late-season win streak last season without Şengün for nine of them. Six of the other nine wins were against teams that had white-flagged the season, and the Rockets lost five straight immediately after that streak. Move along.)
Şengün's fit with Houston's other non-shooters -- especially second-year phenom Amen Thompson -- is another issue to monitor. Thompson can't space the floor at all but is an elite athlete with ball skills and energy. He looked tremendous at the tail end of last season and has breakout potential. Can he be more than an athletic slasher long term? And if not, can he be so good in that role -- think circa-2019 Ben Simmons -- that he's a star anyway?
Hard decisions await on which of these guys to feature and, more importantly, which ones to pay. In addition to Şengün, Jalen Green is a restricted free agent after the season after averaging 19.6 points at age 22. But his erratic shooting and meh efficiency inside the paint make you wonder if committing big money to him will tie Houston's hands for other, more profitable moves. Would the Rockets dare to trade him?
There's more. Rookie Reed Sheppard looked fantastic in summer league and at worst gives the Rockets reliable support for VanVleet in the backcourt. Cam Whitmore missed much of his first season due to injury but is a high-flier who can shoot and defend on the ball. Another athletic combo forward, Tari Eason, should be back from injury and may team with Whitmore to form an electric, up-tempo second-unit forward combo. And did I mention Jabari Smith Jr. is only 21 and began to carve out a niche as a stretch five late last season?
And yet ... Houston has other cards to play besides the kids. The Rockets are sitting on a trove of future cap space and own multiple future unprotected firsts from Phoenix that are likely to pay off in high picks. They have enough expiring money to get in on any deal in-season if the right player comes available without cutting into their top nine: Jeff Green, Jock Landale, Jae'Sean Tate and Adams can match $45 million in incoming salary.
Given that the Rockets went 41-41 with a plus-1.1 point differential a season ago, it may seem I'm short-changing them by barely improving their record. It's possible the young talent erupts and takes the league by storm Oklahoma City-style. More probably, this is a season of consolidation and learning, where Udoka figures out how all this talent fits and the lack of easy wins in the West slows their roll.
However, the Rockets are coming, and they're going to be fun as hell to watch.
The Kings won 46 games last season and missed the playoffs. How about "winning 44 games and missing the playoffs" as an encore?
Or not ... the margins between sixth and 10th in the West on my board are razor thin. I could have everything correct down to the last decimal place on my projections for every player and team, and the Kings could still finish four places higher on dumb luck. But even after the acquisition of DeRozan, the Kings seem a little too pliable defensively and a little too thin up and down the roster to crack the West's top six, most likely leaving them at the mercy of the Play-In Tournament.
Exchanging Barnes and Chris Duarte for DeRozan didn't change the Kings' cap situation and was a no-brainer from a talent perspective. Yes, trading an unsecured pick swap in 2031 is a risky swing, but there's roughly a 50 percent chance they gave up nothing. While DeRozan's limited floor-spacing makes him less capable of opening up the court for the De'Aaron Fox-Domantas Sabonis two-man game, the more overriding need was for one more good player of any stripe. He qualifies.
An 84.1 percent career free-throw shooter who gets to the line often, DeRozan should also cure last season's tragic foul shooting. The Kings made 74.5 percent in 2023-24, last in the league, and that percentage seemingly fell to about 0.1 percent in clutch situations.
Sabonis and DeRozan have been durable players over their careers and will need to be again because the frontcourt depth is ... yikes. After Monday's reported trade of Jalen McDaniels, Trey Lyles, Alex Len and Orlando Washington are what pass for depth at the four and five after the Kings' 2023 bets on Sasha Vezenkov and JaVale McGee failed miserably. An extended absence from either frontcourt star is unquestionably Sacramento's greatest vulnerability.
Things look much better on the perimeter, where Fox is an All-Star candidate and Keegan Murray (who may also spend time masquerading as a four) is the closest thing the Kings have to a defensive stopper. The quality runs deeper here too: The Kings paid full freight (four years, $78 million) to bring back sixth man Malik Monk, developed 3-and-D shooting guard Keon Ellis over the second half of last season and should get a better season from Kevin Huerter.
I'm also bullish on the Kings' first-round pick, Devin Carter -- I think he's the player they thought they were getting with Davion Mitchell -- but he'll miss most of the season after July surgery for a torn labrum. Behind those guys, vet-minimum addition Jordan McLaughlin is a solid third point guard option.
Sacramento finished a respectable 14th in defense last season despite lacking overwhelming individual talent and did so despite some genuinely bad luck in opponent shooting. Kings' opponents made 39 percent from 3 and 80 percent from the free-throw line; defenses have limited control over the first number and zero over the second, but Sacramento was 29th and 27th, respectively, in those two categories.
The Kings' defensive shot chart did a lot of the hard work for them, as they were among the best teams at luring opponents into midrange shots. They'll need that schematic magic to work again to offset a general lack of positional size and non-existent rim protection.
Looking ahead, the Kings are well-positioned. All the key players except DeRozan are in their 20s, they're only out one future first-round pick, and the cap situation is rock solid -- they'll be able to use their full non-taxpayer midlevel exception to expand the talent base next summer.
In terms of in-season work, the Kings are limited on the trade front by the first-round pick they owe Atlanta, likely conveying in 2025. They also can trade four firsts after the season if a splash trade emerges. In the meantime, moving Huerter for a frontcourt piece is one option to ponder.
Whether they finish sixth or 10th in this pack of solid West teams, the overarching storyline is the same. The Kings aren't elite, especially in this conference, but they are set up to be legitimately good for a multi-year run. That achievement alone would be shock-and-awe amazing to any Kings fan of 10 years ago.