The chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has changed yet again, according to scientists.
The asteroid, which was first reported in December 2024 and is large enough to destroy an entire city, was initially calculated to have a 1% chance of hitting the Earth in the year 2032. By Feb. 7, the odds had more than doubled to 2.3% -- a percentage that experts called "uncommon." On Tuesday, Feb. 18, NASA recalculated the odds to 3.1%, the highest ever recorded for an object of its size, per NASA's official blog.
However, as of Friday, Feb. 20, NASA has decreased its risk assessment to 0.28%. This also means that the asteroid has currently been downgraded on the Torino Scale, which is a color-coded scale that astronomers use to assess the risk of an asteroid or comet hitting Earth. The agency notes that it "expects the impact probability to continue to evolve" as it collects more data on the object over time.
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NASA also notes that while the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth has decreased as more information about it becomes known, the probability of 2024 YR4 impacting the Moon has increased to about 1%.
Scientists will lose sight of the asteroid in about April 2028 due to its unique orbit pattern, meaning that researchers are attempting to discover as much about the object as possible before it disappears from view, per ABC News.
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Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in length. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), an object that size collides with Earth approximately every few thousand years and causes significant localized damage -- as opposed to widespread planetary devastation.
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A similarly-sized asteroid entered Earth's atmosphere in 2013 above the city of Chelyabinsk, Russia. While the asteroid ultimately exploded mid-air about 18 miles above the Earth, the explosion released the same amount of energy as 500 kilotons of TNT, according to The Planetary Society. The blast injured "1,500 people and damaged 7,200 buildings across six cities," per the org.
However, NASA notes there is no real cause for alarm -- at least not yet -- as there have been a number of near-Earth objects in the past that have risen on the "risk list" but eventually dropped to zero as more data became available, per their recent blog post.