DENVER -- The Chicago Cubs have lost the nerds. According to FanGraphs' calculations, the team's playoff odds had dropped to 0 percent by Sunday morning. With two weeks left in the season, the Baseball Reference model said there was a 0.4 percent chance. It's essentially over.
Not that you could tell walking into Coors Field's visiting clubhouse after crushing back-to-back losses to the Colorado Rockies. Maintaining emotional equilibrium and a sharp focus on the next game is a team strength, players have repeatedly insisted. Their preparation and collaboration with the coaching staff have led to significant in-season improvements and turnarounds. The players also stand at their lockers and acknowledge that their overall performance simply hasn't been good enough.
"I agree," Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. "They're right."
That's as far as Counsell wanted to go during Sunday's pregame media session in the dugout. The Cubs avoided the sweep with a 6-2 victory -- veteran pitcher Kyle Hendricks showed he still has something left with a vintage quality start and rookie first baseman Michael Busch blasted two home runs -- but the damage had already been done. With the win over a last-place team on getaway day, FanGraphs boosted the Cubs' playoff probability to 0.1 percent.
The sport's highest-paid manager has been mostly pleased with the team's clubhouse dynamics and resolute attitude and the emergence of young talent. But those areas weren't really issues when president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer shockingly fired David Ross last November and signed Counsell to a five-year, $40 million contract that stunned the Milwaukee Brewers and the entire baseball industry.
No two teams are exactly alike, but Hoyer's front office brought back a largely similar group of personnel to work with a different manager, hoping to squeeze more out of the 83-win team that missed last year's playoffs by one game. The 2024 Cubs were supposed to win more one-run games (21-27), figure out the bullpen faster (24 blown saves) and peak at the right time (6-7 in September). It sounded good in theory.
Does it feel like the Cubs are building something here? Can the process be that sound when the results aren't there? What truly matters now when everyone starts next season at zero? Counsell isn't prepared to answer those types of questions yet: "I don't want to send a message that we're done when we're not done."
Fair enough. There will be plenty of time to analyze why Counsell's old team has spent every day since the end of April in first place. The Cubs' ownership group and business executives surely must be wondering why the Brewers still controlled the National League Central even with their small-market payroll.
Hoyer's rational, measured approach to roster construction has led to several good players having 2- and 3-plus-WAR seasons, but nobody who will get serious MVP consideration this year. That philosophy will also leave the Cubs with the financial flexibility to sign big-name free agents and the prospects to make blockbuster trades. There will be a wide array of options this winter to build off a solid foundation.
"The group has been pretty resilient," Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner said. "I know that's an overused word, probably. But there's a lot of points in this year where things could have gone pretty sour. We're definitely not happy with where we are in the standings and things like that. We didn't set out to be in the wild-card race. The goal is to win divisions and dominate.
"But I do appreciate the group's ability to continue to make the most of the next day, whatever is thrown at us. There were some situations where things could have really gone south. The prep and the continuity and those things that breed consistency have been really impressive."
The Cubs did not have enough talent and depth to overcome all of their injuries. Effective relievers can come from anywhere -- the waiver wire, late rounds in the draft, small trades and minor-league deals -- but they were seemingly nowhere to be found in too many of the highest-leverage moments of the season. An offense without a superstar in the middle of the lineup was too inconsistent during a season in which Wrigley Field inexplicably became a brutal place to hit.
The Cubs, for example, could finish the season with a 13-0 run and still miss the playoffs if the New York Mets go 8-5 down the stretch. The Cubs (76-73) would also lose tiebreakers against the Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres. Though their remaining schedule is relatively easy, the Cubs can't make up ground with head-to-head competition against those wild-card contenders.
"It's definitely tough," Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon said after Saturday night's walk-off loss in the 10th inning. "But we've been in tough spots throughout this year and it's a group of pros. We'll come in tomorrow and keep our heads down and go to work and see what happens. I don't anticipate anyone having a hangover.
"We've lost plenty of heartbreakers this year. It's never easier, but we are where we are. Being emotional about it doesn't really change anything. It stinks, but we got to show up tomorrow and (do our jobs)."
A few minutes later and several lockers over, Pete Crow-Armstrong remembered a moment from spring training that applied to this situation: "Couns said that all he wanted from me was to have the trust in me to go make the next play." The rookie center fielder has followed those instructions, playing Gold Glove-caliber defense, using his speed to steal 27 bases, finding a good hitting routine (10 home runs) and making second-half adjustments.
"I've had that on my mind all year," Crow-Armstrong said. "I haven't done this before, so I don't know if you need a sense of urgency or what. But you can't let this game define the last two weeks. And it won't. This is a group that shows up to the park and does the same work every day. They're ready to go play whoever."
The Cubs have to hope that patience, a sense of purpose and calmness will pay off in the future. Because the entirety of this operation has not delivered a postseason win since 2017. And in professional sports, no one cares if you try hard.