Ahead of a pivotal early-season matchup between the Green Bay Packers (2-1) and Minnesota Vikings (3-0) at Lambeau Field on Sunday, Packers beat writer Matt Schneidman and Vikings beat writer Alec Lewis discussed a variety of topics to preview the game.
Schneidman: I want to start with Brian Flores' defense. We know he can cause headaches for opposing offenses. What has made his unit so effective to start this season?
Lewis: Well, first and foremost, it's the injection of some new defensive talent. You and the Packers folks reading this are probably very familiar with Danielle Hunter. He's no longer around. Instead, Minnesota added three versatile pass rushers: Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner. You're also probably aware that the Vikings have had a void at cornerback for years. The group is not spectacular -- if it were, Flores would probably be leaning more into man coverage -- but it's improved with the additions of Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin. Toss in the linebacker swap of Jordan Hicks for Blake Cashman, who boasts a much greater range in coverage, and you'll start to understand the transformation.
Last year, the Vikings did not have the personnel to rush four or five defenders and force the ball out, so Flores leaned into all-out pressure and drop-8 coverages. This year, Minnesota can get home with four or five defenders, and those who drop off the line of scrimmage are even better in coverage. They stress protections. They disguise everything from their coverage shells and front alignments to their position alignments, throwing wrinkles at offenses both pre-snap and post-snap. Head coach Kevin O'Connell has said he wants the opposition to mentally strain for 60 minutes, and some of the best to do it (the 49ers and Texans) have.
This test against Green Bay fascinates me. Did you see Flores's praise earlier this week for Matt LaFleur? He raved about what LaFleur and this Packers staff have done with Malik Willis. What'd you think of that? Is this a coordinator legitimately tipping his cap, or is it some psychological strategy? While we're on the subject, how the heck have they done what they've done with Willis?
Schneidman: I think Flores' praise was genuine and LaFleur returned it, saying this week, "He's one of the most challenging guys to go against in this league ... they play physical, they're doing a great job of getting after the quarterback, the run game is a challenge to go against. They give you a lot of different looks and I think much like we talk about the illusion of complexity, where we like to give looks that are difficult on the defense but simple for us, I feel like that's what they do."
It truly is impressive what the Packers have done the last two weeks without their franchise quarterback. I don't care if it's against the Colts and Titans, who actually have a good defense. We see teams struggle with backup quarterbacks all the time -- the Dolphins right now, for instance -- and the Packers have barely missed a beat on offense the last two weeks.
Two weeks ago, Willis threw the ball just 14 times and only once truly downfield. While the Packers ran the ball 53 times with various looks out of the backfield that kept the Colts on their toes, Willis did just enough with his arm. Last Sunday in Tennessee, Willis did more with his arm and legs, executing a few nice option plays on which he kept the ball. A lot of credit goes to the coaching staff for designing stuff that suits Willis' skill set and varying the offensive game plans the last two weeks. Still, even more credit goes to Willis for executing what has been asked of him at such a high level after being in Green Bay for only a couple weeks.
I don't think we'll see Willis on Sunday, though, since Jordan Love should be back. How will that change what the Packers do on offense? They'll definitely throw the ball more than 20 times, which they haven't done in either game with Willis, and you won't see a franchise quarterback with a metal brace on any designed runs (I don't think). Will Flores bring more pressure against a quarterback who may not be as mobile? There's a chance.
On a different note, how has old friend Aaron Jones looked so far?
Lewis: Glad you went there with Love. From afar, it felt as if he was probably in line to play this weekend. And your mention of how his mobility might affect the Vikings' plan is interesting. It still amazes me to think back to the Love/Vikings matchups from last season. In Week 8, Love looked lost. Two months later, he arrived in Minnesota and torched the Vikings. Flores blitzed him more in the second game than the first, and you'll remember some of the back-foot throws that took the top off of the coverage.
Re-watching the film of the Week 17 game, I was just struck by the Vikings' personnel. Hicks did not look comfortable running the pipe in Tampa-2 looks. Cornerback Akayleb Evans was exposed. The Vikings only ran Quarters coverage on 8.2 percent of snaps in that game, and in 2024, they lead the NFL in Quarters usage. I also cannot get out of my mind the 2018 face-off between Flores and LaFleur, who was then the Tennessee Titans' offensive coordinator. His quarterback that day was Marcus Mariota, and Flores's Patriots defense allowed 34 points. If you are picking up how tough a test I think this will be for Minnesota, you are correct.
As for Jones, man, oh man. Matt, you remember the day the news surfaced, right? This might sound odd, but I remember exactly where I was when I texted you verbatim: Very odd. A day later, the Vikings signed him. You could argue he has single-handedly transformed the Vikings' run game. Minnesota is sixth in the NFL in rushing success rate, and Jones is second among qualified running backs in average yards after contact. Last week, he ran a crossing route in the place of Justin Jefferson and caught a touchdown. This is all on-the-field stuff, but you and Packers fans know what he's brought to the locker room. It's been almost too good to be true.
How has the Packers' run game been in his absence? And, while we're on the subject, flip over and let me know how Jeff Hafley's new defense has performed as a run-stopping unit.
Schneidman: The Packers' run game has been effective in spurts. It was non-existent in the first half of the opener in Brazil, apart from Jayden Reed's 33-yard end-around touchdown. Josh Jacobs got going in the second half when the blocking improved and then it was the opposite against the Colts. The Packers had a whopping 237 rushing yards at halftime but only finished with 261, with Jacobs accounting for 151 of those on 32 carries. Against the Titans, Willis and backup running back Emanuel Wilson led the way against a stout run defense and the Packers averaged 5.1 yards per rush on 37 carries. The Packers lead the league with 612 rushing yards but have also run the ball more than anyone. Their offensive rush success percentage ranks 24th, so it's been more quantity over quality.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers run defense has been predictably lackluster. From 2019-2023, they ranked 31st in rush defense EPA per snap despite ranking 13th in the category in 2023. Under Hafley, the Packers rank 31st through three games after Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor had their way on the ground (the Titans only ran 11 times last week). What's stood out with Green Bay's defense is their takeaways, which have compensated for that Swiss cheese up front. The Packers had seven interceptions all of last season and have seven already through three games. Free-agent signing Xavier McKinney leads the NFL with three and cornerback Jaire Alexander has two, including a pick-six of Will Levis last Sunday. The difference? They're playing with "vision." Here's how Hafley describes a vision-based defense.
"Rush plus coverage. If you're going to play with vision on the quarterback, your rush has to speed up the quarterback (the Packers had eight sacks last week and rank eighth in pressure percentage). If he has time to throw it and guys run around getting open, that's got to be tied in. So the D-line's got to be going. We've got to be hitting our drops right. We've got to be on our landmarks and we've got to be playing off him and anticipating the ball coming out quicker and being able to drive to the ball and hopefully we force the ball to be thrown in front of us, and we're able to drive and eliminate explosives that way."
That pass defense will be challenged this week with one of the biggest surprises of the early season thus far. What has made Sam Darnold so good in Kevin O'Connell's offense?
Lewis: Reading that Hafley quote, my mind goes two places: The first being that Hafley and O'Connell are close, dating back to their time together on the 2015 Cleveland staff; the second being I wonder how O'Connell and the Vikings' offensive staff attempts to use the Packer defense's vision-based approach to their own advantage.
As for your question, first, it's wild to scroll through some of the statistics to really assess where Darnold stacks up. He has the second highest passer rating behind only Josh Allen. He is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes (his career average prior to this season was around 60 percent). And he has only turned the ball over twice. This production is a confluence of multiple factors.
First, it helps to be surrounded by a stellar skill group (which includes wide receiver Jalen Nailor, who has filled in admirably in Jordan Addison's absence the last couple weeks) and solid offensive line. Then, there is the aspect of O'Connell's intentionality both in terms of teaching philosophy and the construction of the game plan.
It also does not hurt to be playing from ahead as much as Darnold has. Darnold has only thrown two passes while trailing this season -- and not once since the first quarter of the Giants game in Week 1. That's not to take away from his performance; Darnold has processed the field well, been accurate and at times escaped from pressure using his legs. Whether or not the Vikings offensive line can hold up against Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt and some guy named Kingsley Enagbare, who looked like a man possessed on last week's film, might dictate the game.
Last thing from me: What kind of Alexander-Jefferson fireworks are in store? If I'm not mistaken, these two have not faced off since Alexander did the Griddy atop Jefferson late in the 2022 season. That is known here locally as the slip-and-slide game. Any word from Alexander this week on this back and forth?
Schneidman: If Alexander talks to reporters, it's normally on Fridays, so nothing as of when I'm writing this. I'm intrigued to see how the Packers defend Jefferson. We've seen Joe Barry use a couple different formulas over the years, one with Alexander staying on one side and one with him more attached to Jefferson. The latter certainly worked better, so I expect them to do that under Hafley. They could also give him McKinney over the top as insurance. Does Alexander need that help over the top? Probably not as often as most other cornerbacks, but the Packers might want to be absolutely sure Jefferson doesn't go off and force others to beat them.
Alright, let's get to some predictions. I'm going Packers 24, Vikings 21. I think the Vikings are for real, but I think the likely return of Love and a defense that leads the NFL in the takeaways will be enough to get them over the top. What say you?
Lewis: Maybe I'm too close to this team, or riding the three-game wave too much, but I think the Vikings win the game. Score prediction: 31-27. Jones back in Lambeau is part of this prediction, but the other aspect is Green Bay's defense. Minnesota will likely have Addison back. Add him to the mix of Jefferson and Nailor, and though I think LaFleur will put together the best gameplan yet against Flores, for some reason I think the Vikings will emerge in the end.