FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. - There's very little to like about Atlanta's third-down numbers, but there is a glimmer of hope, according to Aaron Schatz.
It's just math.
"There's no doubt third downs have been a problem," said Schatz, the chief analytics officer at FTN Fantasy. "The good news is third downs do regress a little bit toward your overall performance over time. So if you're struggling on third downs and all right the rest of the time, you're likely to get better on third down."
The word "problem" is a generous description of the Falcons' performance on third down. It has been an anchor around the offense's neck through three games.
Atlanta is converting just 22.2 percent of its third-down attempts (6-of-27), going 2-for-9 on third down in each of its first three games. That mark ranks 29th in the league, according to TruMedia. No one in the league has fewer than Atlanta's six third-down conversions.
"You go back, you watch them, you try to figure out the solves for it," offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said. "I think the biggest thing is just executing at the right time, everybody doing their job the way that we're supposed to do it. That starts with us as coaches providing the clarity that we can for those guys."
There's no single theme that runs through all of Atlanta's third-down failures. Robinson and quarterback Kirk Cousins agreed.
"I wish it was as simple as one thing we could hone in on, but it's probably a variety of things," Cousins said. "As you look at it, you'll get a lot of one-offs where you say, 'Well, in that one play, that was the reason we didn't convert, but that wasn't a repeating theme throughout all these third downs.' You get a few of those one-offs where it's harder to feel like that's a consistent thing."
Almost everyone in Atlanta says the easiest fix would be to get more third-and-shorts, but the Falcons haven't even been good in those situations. Atlanta is 0-of-3 on third-and-short (1-2 yards), 3-of-10 on third-and-medium (3-5 yards), 3-of-8 on third-and-long (6-10 yards) and 0-for-6 on third-and-extralong (10-plus yards).
Only one team in the league ranks lower by FTN's defense-adjusted value over average metric in third-and-short situations.
"That's another reason for optimism," Schatz said. "With this offensive line and Bijan (Robinson), they should not be 31st on third-and-short. That should be better than that so it probably will be."
If the Falcons are going to get better on third down, they need it to happen soon.
A quick recap of the last time the Saints and Falcons played: New Orleans embarrassed Atlanta 48-17 in last season's Week 18 finale at the Superdome, outscoring the Falcons 31-0 in the second half. The Saints offense famously scored a 1-yard rushing touchdown with three seconds left despite lining up in victory formation.
New Orleans coach Dennis Allen said quarterback Jameis Winston overrode his call to take a knee. That didn't make any difference to Atlanta coach Arthur Smith, who was fired hours after the final gun sounded.
It seems like the kind of loss new coach Raheem Morris and these Falcons would want to avenge. Not so, they say. They're hardly even thinking about it, they promise.
"I don't go with motivation that I wasn't a part of," Morris said. "If you need any more motivation than playing against a division rival for the South, then you're probably in the wrong building anyway."
How believable that is is debatable, but the players in the locker room echoed the "it's in the past" message.
"New team, new year," center Ryan Neuzil said.
Just playing the Saints should be motivation enough, Morris said. The NFC South's two most bitter rivals will be playing for the 110th time. Atlanta has won 54 of the previous 109 matchups.
"It's been special for a long time, and hopefully it'll continue to be special," Morris said. "It's just a big deal, a real cool rivalry."
Cousins will be playing in the rivalry for the first time but has already sensed it will match the intensity of the Washington-Dallas and Minnesota-Green Bay rivalry games he has played in, he said.
"You talk to fans and they call them the Aints," safety Jessie Bates III said. "It's funny, and it's something in this locker room that we have to embrace. Getting our first home win against the Saints, no better way to do it."
The Falcons have played the NFL's toughest schedule through three games. Their first three opponents - Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Kansas City - are a combined 8-1, with that one loss being Atlanta's victory over the Eagles. That provides some solace for the team's 1-2 start but not much, Cousins said.
"I knew going into this, 'Hey, there are going to be some growing pains,'" Cousins said. "We're going to have to figure this out as we go because there is some newness, but it's the NFL, and nobody wants to hear that, and I don't really want to hear that. The season started against the Steelers. There was no ramp-up."
The good news for Atlanta is it has the second-easiest remaining schedule in the league, according to The Athletic's Austin Mock. The Falcons play division opponents each of the next three weeks. That affords them a chance to bounce back from their two early losses, but it also puts a lot of pressure on a team still trying to find its offensive stride.
"The division is coming to town, and we better be ready to deal," Morris said. "This will determine a lot about us at the end of it all, but right now we better worry about the New Orleans Saints."
The defensive plan for facing the Saints quarterback was pretty simple the first 10 years of his career: get pressure, and you'll probably get a win.
"Derek Carr, when clean and everything is going right, is an absolute stud in this league," Morris said. "You have to affect the passer. That goes for everybody, but you have to find a way to affect him."
Here's the problem for Atlanta. Affecting Carr hasn't worked nearly as well this year as it has in the past, which is one of the biggest reasons New Orleans is second in the league in scoring (34.3 points per game) through three weeks.
Between 2014 and 2023, Carr's expected points added per dropback while facing pressure was minus-0.45. Through three weeks of this season, it's up to 0.73. That's the best mark of any quarterback this season, according to TruMedia. Much of the credit for that number goes to first-year Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, former passing game coordinator in San Francisco and the oldest son of former NFL head coach Gary Kubiak.
Kubiak brought Kyle Shanahan's wide zone run scheme and passing game along with him to New Orleans, which gave Morris a head-start on his preparations this week since he coached with Shanahan in Atlanta and played him twice a year as the Rams defensive coordinator the last three seasons.
Kubiak "has absolutely done a great job there," according to Morris. "It's a very similar system that you guys all know from Kyle, very similar system to his dad, very similar system to Mike Shanahan. Kyle was born into it, he was born into it, they grew up doing it, they grew up around it. It starts with the zone scheme."
The Eagles held New Orleans to 89 rushing yards and 12 points last week after Philadelphia defensive coordinator Vic Fangio employed a six-man front that has had proven success against Shanahan-style systems. The Falcons entered this season planning to carry enough defensive linemen to run that same front when needed, according to Morris.
The Falcons and Saints will be without their starting centers Sunday after Atlanta's Drew Dalman (ankle) and New Orleans' Erik McCoy (groin) both went on injured reserve this week. If the game's outcome turns on which team has the better reserve at the position, the Falcons like their chances.
"Neuzil has done a great job," Zac Robinson said. "(Offensive line coach) Dwayne Ledford, all throughout OTAs and camp, he does a great job of mixing him in there with Kirk, so it's not like they're getting a feel for each other for the first time. I thought he did a great job the other night stepping in on short notice."
Neuzil, who played the entire second half against Kansas City, joined the Falcons as an undrafted free agent in 2021. He has spent most of his time since on the practice squad but started four games last year.
According to Neuzil, his preparation this week won't change.
"Just get all the looks, stay focused and get it rolling, make sure we don't miss a beat on offense and make everything smooth sailing," he said. "Kirk has been really, really great, very detailed, going over the small things."
The biggest adjustment for Cousins is that Neuzil snaps with his left hand, while Dalman snaps with his right.
"Typically, the lefty is very different, but he actually does a pretty good job of making it feel seamless when he snaps it under center," Cousins said. "The gun snaps, yeah, the ball may rotate a little different or spin different, but nothing too major as long as you can get used to it."
The Falcons might be without two of their starting offensive linemen. In addition to Dalman, right tackle Kaleb McGary (knee) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. Atlanta has yet to rule him out for Sunday.
"We'll see how it goes, but I'll be fine (long term)," McGary said. "I was fortunate enough that nothing super, super bad showed up (on the MRI), so now it's just about taking it day by day."