Former President Donald Trump's projected win could impact Social Security and Medicare, as while the ex-president has publicly vowed not to cut the benefits programs, experts have warned his policy proposals -- including a tax cut on Social Security payments -- could make the programs run out of cash, with an analysis projecting Trump's policy agenda would deplete Social Security's funds sooner than expected, in just six years.
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"The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong throughout the years," Leavitt said in a statement to Forbes after the group's analysis was released, claiming Trump "will continue to strongly protect Social Security in his second term."
In addition to draining the U.S.'s Social Security and Medicare funds more quickly, tax experts project Trump's proposed tax cut on Social Security would not provide that much benefit to middle-class Americans. Social Security recipients who earn between $32,000 and $60,000 annually would only save approximately $90 in taxes, according to the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution's Tax Policy Center, while the 1% of earners who make $5 million or more would receive $2,500. The lowest-income Americans who earn less than $32,000 already aren't taxed on their Social Security benefits, so they wouldn't see a change.
Leavitt claimed to Forbes that Vice President Kamala Harris' policy proposals threatened Social Security because if undocumented immigrants are "allowed to stay," that will "cause Social Security to buckle and collapse." CFRB and other experts say the opposite is true, however, and it's Trump's plan for mass deportations that would actually hurt the entitlement program. Undocumented immigrants who are employed in salaried U.S. jobs pay into Social Security even though they won't actually receive any money from it, ultimately bolstering the program's coffers more than U.S. citizens who take money from Social Security do. If those migrants are all deported, as Trump has proposed, that means Social Security would lose out on all the money they're now contributing, worsening its financial issues. The office of the Social Security Administration's chief actuary estimated in 2013 that undocumented immigrants contributed approximately $12 billion to Social Security in 2010, and CFRB's projection estimates that Trump's deportation and tariff plans would together cost Social Security anywhere between $300 billion and $750 billion between fiscal years 2026 and 2035.
Harris and other Democrats have pointed to Project 2025 to suggest Trump would cut Social Security and Medicare if elected. The document, a 900-page policy agenda spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation and other right-wing groups, proposes a total overhaul of the executive branch by the next conservative administration. "Just look at his Project 2025 agenda," Harris said in a speech that was also shared online by her campaign. "If he is elected, Donald Trump ... intends to cut Social Security and Medicare." Project 2025 does not explicitly call for fully cutting Social Security or Medicare, though it does propose reforms to Medicare that include making Medicare Advantage, a paid supplement to Medicare, the "default enrollment option." Trump and his campaign have publicly disavowed any connection to Project 2025 -- though he does have links to the Heritage Foundation and has praised its work in the past -- and he would not be under any obligation to follow its policy agenda if elected.
Trump's vice president Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, told The New York Times before he was named as Trump's running mate that he supports raising money for Social Security through a combination of getting more men back into the workforce, increasing wages and increasing tariffs. Through that, he claimed, "I think that you buy yourself a whole hell of a lot more than the nine or 10 years that the actuaries say that we have." It's unclear if Trump shares those views about how to make up any potential funding gap for Social Security, though the ex-president has proposed raising tariffs on imported goods. Tax experts have suggested raising tariffs would not garner a significant amount of government revenue, however, and the amount that is raised would likely be lower than projected, because at least some Americans would stop buying imported goods since they'd be more expensive.
The economy became a central issue in the November election as polls repeatedly showed it's the most important issue to voters, including Social Security. Trump highlighted his plan to repeal Social Security taxes on the campaign trail, sharing a campaign video on social media Monday that claims the ex-president "will make sure no one cuts Medicare or Social Security." The left also attacked Trump over his Social Security views, putting up billboards in Asheville, North Carolina, in August that took aim at Trump over Social Security as he was set to deliver a speech there on the economy. The billboards claimed Trump plans to "slash funding, leave seniors behind, and cut taxes for the ultra-wealthy," according to The Hill, and coincided with the anniversary of the signing of the Social Security Act in 1935.
What To Know About Kamala Harris' Economic Agenda As She Announces New Proposals For Black Men (Forbes)
What Would the Trump Campaign Plans Mean for Social Security? (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)
Donald Trump's Suggestion to End Taxation of Social Security Benefits (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)
Exempting Social Security Benefits from Income Tax Is Unsound and Fiscally Irresponsible (Tax Foundation)
How Would Donald Trump And Kamala Harris Change Your Taxes? Here's What To Know. (Forbes)