In today's newsletter, we look at: Lamar Jackson's playoff woes, offensive wizardry in Washington and projecting the remaining coaching vacancies. (Note: This was first published prior to former Lions DC Aaron Glenn's confirmation as the Jets coach, which you can read about here).
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Washington has paired a franchise quarterback with a strong play caller, the essentials for success in the NFL. Heck, even Dan Snyder is gone. No matter what happens this Sunday, this team is in great shape.
If you've been wondering how Kliff Kingsbury helped Jayden Daniels become the most successful rookie QB in NFL history -- and you should be, especially after Kingsbury called his best game against Detroit -- then let's catch up.
A few of the traits that helped make Washington's offense special:
Staying in school. A few months ago, Bengals CB Cam Taylor-Britt's dismissal of Washington's offense as a "college" scheme wasn't completely wrong. In a press conference earlier this year, HC Dan Quinn explained that the foundation of former Texas Tech HC Kingsbury's current offense is "[Daniels'] favorite concepts from LSU."
Tempo over complexity. The Commanders use no-huddle on a whopping 42.1 percent of plays, more than double the league's second-highest rate. As film guru Ted Nguyen explained earlier this season, "Tempo is a great way to keep defensive looks simplified."
Adaptation. As Ted's recent coaching decisions column explains, Kingsbury and Daniels learn from their mistakes. Quickly. One example: This OC has typically preferred to keep receivers in the same spots. But after Terry McLaurin had just one catch for 10 yards against the Eagles in Week 11, they adjusted by nearly doubling his snaps on the right side of the formation, leading to more favorable matchups for the star receiver.
Daniels' growth is especially impressive. Watch his head in this GIF from his second start, and you'll notice he fails to move past his first read before leaving a clean pocket and taking a sack:
As Ted pointed out, had Daniels instead continued his progression, he would have spotted an open receiver across the middle:
I went back and watched; this plagued Daniels throughout that September game, as he rarely moved past his first read.
Yet one week later, Daniels looked like a different player. Facing a similar situation (his first read was covered), he scanned through his options, finding an open Luke McCaffrey on a dig route for a first down.
It's one of many improvements Daniels has made this year. I asked Ted what else he's seen:
💬 After Week 3, you could see how comfortable Daniels was in the pocket and throwing over the middle. He had a few bad games when he was hurt and couldn't run as much, but he looks healthy, and it's just hard to rattle him.
When he has time, he can get through his progressions smoothly, and when he feels pressure, he can calmly evade the rush. He has been so good that it's hard to pinpoint a great area of needed improvement.
In Kingsbury's offense, Daniels is the main reason why Washington is one win away from the Super Bowl, one year after going 4-13. As David Aldridge writes, let that marinate.
Let's start with the simmering debate, one you might've been hearing all week (and beyond): Does Lamar Jackson have what it takes to win big playoff games?
The bad: In eight postseason games, he has a 3-5 record and 11 turnovers to 10 TD passes, while the potential three-time MVP's completion percentage, EPA per dropback and passer rating are down from his regular-season numbers. He had two turnovers in Sunday's loss, his first multi-turnover game since ... last year's AFC Championship.
The not-so-bad: Throughout the 2023 and 2024 playoffs -- and without Pro Bowl receiver Zay Flowers in the latest two of those four games -- Jackson's EPA per pass ranks ahead of Patrick Mahomes'. He's averaging 68.5 rush yards per game, and based on EPA, only Jayden Daniels' two-game sample has been better against zone coverage, per TruMedia.
It also suggests quarterbacks tend to regress to their regular-season level of performance over time, evidenced by their proximity to that midpoint line.
On the bright side, in Sunday's loss to Buffalo, Jackson led the Ravens to scores on three of their final four possessions. The other opportunity ended with a Mark Andrews fumble. And if Andrews catches that two-point conversion, we might be debating something else entirely.
Perhaps most importantly, Jackson's teammates believe in him: "As long as Lamar is here, you'll have a shot every year at getting a Super Bowl," fullback Patrick Ricard said to beat reporter Jeff Zrebiec.
But going forward, do you believe Jackson can win big games? Share your thoughts here. We'll include them in tomorrow's newsletter, along with some further thoughts. Over to Dianna.
It was a busy afternoon on the coaching front yesterday:
Back to you, Jacob.
With arguably the most-sought candidate (Ben Johnson) and top job (Chicago) leaving the market together, here's a quick look at which coach could land with each team. These are my own thoughts, based on paying close attention to daily reporting.
Raiders: With Johnson out, it's on to Plan B. That might mean Pete Carroll, who'd bring much-needed positivity to an organization that could use it. I loved this nugget from The Athletic's beat reporters: The Raiders' search coordinator, Jed Hughes, helped place Carroll with the Seahawks in 2010.
Jets: It still feels like Aaron Glenn or bust, right? He'd likely be joined by Detroit's Chris Spielman or Washington's Lance Newmark, who have interviewed for the GM role.
Saints: To me, Glenn appears to be their first choice. If I'm Glenn, who spent almost as many years as a Saints player/assistant as he did on the Jets' roster, I'd choose New Orleans over Woody Johnson. Mike McCarthy feels like the backup here.
Jaguars: With Bucs OC Liam Coen staying put, per Adam Schefter, I wouldn't be surprised if the Jags hired former Jacksonville assistant Robert Saleh (though Bills OC Joe Brady would be more appealing for those of us with fantasy dynasty shares of Trevor Lawrence). NFL executives see this as a good landing spot.
Cowboys: I'm leaning toward current Eagles OC Kellen Moore, who spent five years coaching in Dallas before leading the division-rival's offense this season. Cowboys OC Brian Schottenheimer, son of Marty, has also entered the mix. Saad Yousuf explains why.
We'll be back tomorrow with an AFC Championship preview, plus what the newly eliminated Lions and Ravens could look like in 2025.
Yesterday's most-clicked: For the second straight day, it was Amos Morale III's article on the Texans having plenty to say about the officiating in their loss to the Chiefs. Threepeat?