Phillies general manager Dave Dombrowski made a splash on Sunday morning, reportedly agreeing to a trade with the division-rival Marlins to acquire left-hander Jesús Luzardo and minor-league catcher Paul McIntosh in exchange for shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba and minor-league outfielder Emaarion Boyd.
The 27-year-old former top pitching prospect is on the move to his third different organization since ascending to the big leagues back in 2019 after being to just 12 starts last year with Miami due to elbow and back issues. Fittingly, there's a lot to unwrap here with the holiday season looming, so let's start by breaking down Luzardo's immediate fantasy outlook with the Phillies and how he fits into their starting rotation mix.
What are the Phillies getting in Jesús Luzardo?
How healthy is Luzardo? That's the central question for the Phillies (and fantasy managers) after missing the final three months of last season due to a stress reaction in his back. Fantasy managers are keenly aware that back issues can be tricky matters that tend to impact a pitcher's performance beyond initial recovery timetables. We'll have a better idea of his status once Grapefruit League action kicks off in a few months, but it's fair to harbor some durability concerns with Luzardo heading into spring training, especially since he's eclipsed 101 innings only once in the past four full seasons dating back to 2021.
The 27-year-old southpaw figures to help stabilize the back-end of Philadelphia's starting rotation mix behind stalwarts Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez, at least until top pitching prospect Andrew Painter - who showcased top-of-the-rotation stuff during his recent Arizona Fall League stint in his return from Tommy John surgery - has sufficiently built up his workload in the upper minors to make his highly-anticipated major-league debut, most likely around midseason, if not sooner. Luzardo's arrival diminishes Painter's immediate appeal for re-draft purposes, but it might not be the worst thing for his long-term development to spend some additional time (in a similar fashion to Paul Skenes last year) dominating in the upper minors as he builds up his pitch count and stamina to handle a full workload.
The overwhelming majority of organizations are transitioning to either six-man rotations outright or building in extra rest for their established five-man mixes, so it makes sense that the Phillies want to bring in an extra insurance policy over last year's fifth-starter Taijuan Walker, who was left off the club's NLDS roster after posting a calamitous 7.10 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and 58/37 K/BB ratio across 83 2/3 innings (19 appearances, 15 starts). Luzardo represents a definite upgrade over Walker for the Phillies at the back end of their starting rotation and gives them a strong insurance policy in case they lose one of their other established arms to injury. It's difficult to confidently project more than 120 innings for Luzardo next season, but he's a vastly superior short-term option for the Phillies as a fifth starter, at least until Painter is ready.
Should fantasy managers get to know Starlyn Caba?
Absolutely. Caba - currently 249th overall (SS39) in the latest Rotoworld Top 500 Dynasty Rankings for 2025 - rocketed up prospect rankings industry-wide this past season when he excelled early in the extreme pitcher-friendly environments of the Rookie-level Florida Coast League at just 18 years old, batting .254/.427/.335 with two homers and 37 stolen bases across 225 plate appearances. To put those numbers in greater context, he walked more times (51) than he struck out (34) in 52 contests. He proceeded to struggle during a brief 26-game stint at Single-A Clearwater, but that's not unexpected for a developing switch-hitting shortstop in his stateside debut after spending the previous year in the Dominican Summer League.
The long-term appeal here for fantasy managers is that Caba grades out as a potential elite defensive shortstop, which virtually guarantees that he'll reach the big leagues down the road. He would've been blocked by Phillies star Trea Turner, and top prospect Aidan Miller, over the next few years, but he has a path wide enough to Miami's starting shortstop job in a couple seasons that you could drive an 18-wheeler through it. Without being hyperbolic, Caba's stellar defense, plus speed and contact skills project to make him an impact fantasy contributor once he reaches the big leagues in a few hyperspace jumps.
How does the move impact Jesús Luzardo's fantasy outlook?
Exiting loanDepot park's cavernous homer-suppressing dimensions for Citizens Bank Park, which ranks as the fifth-best out of 30 environments for home run power over the last three years by Baseball Savant's park factors, isn't ideal for fantasy purposes. Especially since loanDepot park checked in at 22nd overall by that same metric. However, Luzardo has shown flashes of immense fantasy potential in recent years, which is reason for optimism that Philadelphia's pitching apparatus will help him reach his ceiling. If he's healthy, which remains an open question, we'll see his average fastball velocity tick back up in the 97-mph range again, which would increase the effectiveness of his slider and changeup, which have been his best put-away pitchers over the last half-decade.
It's extremely early in the process, but Luzardo is currently being selected 446th overall, on average, in NFBC drafts. That number is certainly going to rise following the trade to Philadelphia, since he's likely to pick up a few additional wins on a contending roster, but fantasy managers should expect Luzardo to come off the board in the late rounds of 2025 drafts, even if he looks sharp in spring training.
If he's able to reverse last year's steep decline in the strikeout department, which fell to a measly 21 percent last season in Miami from nearly 30 percent over the previous two years, Luzardo will miss enough bats to finish as a borderline top 50-to-60 range starting pitcher for fantasy purposes, even if his ERA is likely going to wind up somewhere in the 4.00 range. It really comes down to whether he's able to put last year's back issues to bed and gobble up enough innings to reach that ceiling projection. We'll have a much better handle on his immediate fantasy outlook once he makes his Phillies debut in spring training.