In an unusually early revelation, it seems that we already have a tip on which iPhones will be able to enjoy iOS 19 when it arrives next year -- and it looks like it's some pretty good news.
According to France's iPhoneSoft, no iPhone will be left behind when iOS 19 ships next year. That means iPhones as old as the 2018 iPhone XS and iPhone XR will still be able to receive updates to iOS 19.
iPhoneSoft has made similar predictions for past iOS releases, and while there has been an occasional misstep, its information has proven to be mostly accurate, thanks to "a few friends within Apple."
If this info turns out to be correct, Apple will set a new record next year for the longest-supported iPhone models, with the iPhone XS and iPhone XR bumping the 2015 iPhone 6s, which previously made it from iOS 9 all the way to iOS 15 before being dropped with the release of iOS 16 in 2022. The iPhone XS/XR were released with iOS 12, so they've already tied that record with this year's iOS 18 release; an iOS 19 update next year would put them in the lead.
Unlike its Android rivals, Apple doesn't traditionally say much about how long it will offer software updates. However, it has a proven track record of supporting most iPhones with 4-5 years of updates. That software lifecycle that was the envy of Android users for years; Google and Samsung have both recently raised the bar with a seven-year update promise for their flagship phones, but they're the exception.
In some ways, these longer runs of updates aren't all that surprising on iOS or Android. If anything, it was a testament to Apple's engineering prowess that the early iPhones could get through as many upgrades as they did. However, today's smartphones pack in such ridiculous amounts of processing power that it would be ridiculous if they couldn't receive updates for years.
In Apple's case, it's fair to say that the new generation of A-series chips began with the A12 Bionic in 2018. While the Neural Engine was first introduced in the 2017 A11 Bionic that powered the iPhone X and iPhone 8, that was a significantly weaker two-core version that was capped at a mere 600 billion operations per second. To put that in context, neural processing units (NPUs) like Apple's Neural Engine are typically rated in "TOPS," or trillions of operations per second.
The A12 Bionic moved to an eight-core NPU that allowed it to hit a more respectable 5 TOPS, while the A13 Bionic increased that slightly to 5.5 TOPS in 2019. The Neural Engine cores then doubled in 2020, with the iPhone 12's A14 chip boasting 11 TOPS and the A16 reaching 17 TOPS. The A17 Pro and A18 chips used in the iPhone 15 Pro, iPad mini 7, and iPhone 16 lineup can now achieve 38 trillion operations per second, which is part of the reason why only those devices support Apple Intelligence (the other part is the requirement for at least 8GB of RAM, which is also exclusive to those devices).
The A11-equipped iPhone X and iPhone 8 were cut off at iOS 16, but they'd already been left out of new features even in iOS 15 due to their less powerful Neural Engines. By comparison, the iPhone XS/XR still support a surprising number of features in iOS 18. The few things that are excluded from these models are due to hardware other than the A-series chip.
For example, proximity unlocking with Home Keys requires an ultra-wideband chip that wasn't introduced until the iPhone 11, accessibility features like Eye Tracking require the improved TrueDepth camera introduced on the iPhone 12, and messaging via satellite requires satellite radios that didn't come until the iPhone 14. The one limitation that's likely related to the older A12 chip is audio transcription, which requires an A14 Bionic chip with its 16-core Neural Engine.
We'll likely see some more new features in iOS 19 that won't work with older iPhones, although that's likely to affect more than just the 2018 models. Apple Intelligence has already set a pretty high bar -- the iPhone 15 Pro or later -- so we don't expect any new AI features in iOS 19 to be available on even the 2023 iPhone 15.
Although Apple drew a line in the sand at the A12 Bionic with iOS 17, it's done a better job in supporting older iPad models. iPadOS 18 can still run on the seventh-generation iPad and 2017 iPad Pro models, which use the A10 Fusion and A10X Fusion, respectively.
However, according to iPhoneSoft, next year will mark the end of the line for those two, as Apple plans to cut off everything before the A12 Bionic for the iPad family. Since there were no iPads that used an A11 chip -- Apple went from the A10 chips in 2017 to the A12X for the 2018 iPad Pro and A12 for the 2019 iPad Air and iPad mini -- that only leaves out the 2017 and early 2018 models.
If true, the oldest iPad able to run iPadOS 19 will be the 2018 iPad Pro -- the first to receive the modern flat-edged design that's since come to the entire family. However, the more traditional 2019 and 2020 models will still be on the list.
While iPhoneSoft claims to have reliable sources, it's important to remember that this is all still rumor and speculation, so take it with the appropriate dose of your favorite seasoning. Even if the information accurately reflects Apple's intentions today, we're still in the early development stages for next year's software updates, so Apple's plans could change by the time iOS 19 and iPadOS 19 are ready.
[The information provided in this article has NOT been confirmed by Apple and may be speculation. Provided details may not be factual. Take all rumors, tech or otherwise, with a grain of salt.]