The complicated mathematical models that meteorologists use to predict weather suggest the San Francisco Bay Area could see some rain in the next week or so, but as of Tuesday, the details of the forecast remained unclear.
"We see quite a bit of disagreement in the models because some are picking up the precipitation and others are not," said Brayden Murdock, a forecaster with the National Weather Service's Bay Area office.
The possibility of rain comes as models are showing a low-pressure system forming Wednesday over the eastern Pacific Ocean, hundreds of miles off the coast of California. It is expected to initially be positioned almost directly west of the Bay Area. This system is forecast to stay parked over the ocean, though a cold front associated with it could impact the Bay Area on Friday and through the weekend, potentially bringing some light rain to the northern part of the North Bay. At some point, the larger system -- what Murdock called "the rainmaker" -- should move east onto land. It's likely to favor the Pacific Northwest over California, but Murdock said there's potential for Northern California and the Bay Area to see some rain.
"The actual big rain producer will be sitting in the Pacific," Murdock said. "Once it's settled out there like that, it's hard for it to pick up momentum again."
With this system looming, the Bay Area weather service said in its official forecast that there's a chance "for some degree of active weather" in the next six to 10 days, though the extent of any rainfall remains unknown.
Because California's wet season started Oct. 1, the potential for rain is of high interest. The Golden State sees the majority of its annual precipitation November through March but usually receives some rain in October. This October has been particularly dry. In an average October, downtown San Francisco records about a half-inch of rain Oct. 1-22; this year, it has seen no measurable rain in that time span, according to the weather service. In the North Bay, which often sees more rain than other parts of the Bay Area, a weather gauge in Napa also hasn't measured any traceable amounts of rain.
"I'd say we're running a little bit drier," said Crystal Oudit, a meteorologist with the weather service. Oudit said this period of weather that's a bit drier than normal for this time of year is no indication of what winter will bring. Many factors are at play -- including the potential for a weak La Niña weather pattern to develop -- and meteorologists are uncertain how the winter will unfold.