Apr 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Isaiah Joe (11) celebrates a three-point basket against the Charlotte Hornets during the fourth quarter at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-Imagn Images / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images
The 2023-24 Oklahoma City Thunder won 57 regular season games, their third most in franchise history. Their +7.4 net rating, second highest in the league behind the title-winning Boston Celtics, implied 58 Pythagorean wins due to point differential. The Thunder won many games by relatively large margins, but those two metrics are insufficient to understand the team's strengths and weaknesses.
In 2004, sports analytics pioneer Dean Oliver identified the "Four Factors of Basketball Success" that help teams win. These factors are effective field goal percentage, which measures points per field goal attempt; turnover percentage, or turnovers per 100 possessions; rebound percentage, the percentage of available rebounds grabbed; and free throw rate, which reflects free throw attempts compared to field goal attempts. All four factors must be applied to a team's offense and defense.
Oliver initially assigned values to factors based on their perceived importance, with the weights representing an allocated proportion of 100%. Statistician Justin Jacobs found more precise values 13 years later using the least squares method, which determines the line of best fit for an existing data set. Jacobs' linear regression model with an intercept shows the estimated coefficients for the four factors based on 2016-17 team wins; he averaged each factor's team and opponent coefficient to assign weights.
Their exact weights differ, but the order remains identical: two-way scoring efficiency is more important than two-way turnovers, which are more important than two-way rebounding, which is more important than two-way free throw rate.
Effective field goal percentage is a more accurate efficiency metric than traditional field goal percentage because 3-point shots are worth more than 2-point shots. The formula is (field goals made + (0.5 * 3-point field goals made)) / field goals attempted.
The Thunder achieved elite scoring efficiency on both ends of the floor last season. They ranked third in effective field goal percentage (57.3%) and fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed (53.0%), placing them in a firm contender group with the Celtics, Nuggets and Timberwolves; those four teams led the league in regular season wins and regular season net rating.
Not including incoming rookies, 10 of the 12 current Thunder players exceeded last year's league-average effective field goal percentage (54.7%). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander raised his percentage by over three points from the 2022-23 season, which is significant because he attempted 496 more field goals than anyone else on the team, second-place Jalen Williams. Another Gilgeous-Alexander uptick could happen with improved 3-point efficiency or volume.
Rookie Chet Holmgren and sophomore Williams were uncommonly efficient for their ages, each crossing a 59% effective field goal percentage on over 900 field goal attempts. Holmgren went 62.3% on 604 2-point attempts last season, the eighth-highest percentage among players who shot at least 500. Not to be outdone by his 2022 draft compatriot, Williams' 42.7% 3-point percentage was the sixth-highest among everyone who attempted at least as many triples as he did.
Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, both new additions this year, fit well into Mark Daigneault's offense because they do not necessarily need the ball to be their most effective. Caruso's 2023-24 efficiency placed him in a cluster with Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace, the two most consistent outside shooters on the team, as well as Williams. Hartenstein immediately possesses the highest 2-point percentage in the rotation, so teams must watch out for his interior combination with Holmgren.
Even Oklahoma City's role players shot the ball very well last season. Luguentz Dort eclipsed 50% from inside the arc for the first time in a season and shot 39.4% from deep, by far the highest mark in his professional career. Aaron Wiggins' 3-point percentage was the highest among all players who attempted at least 100, and he added a 2-point percentage greater than every non-center on the current Thunder roster.
Oliver and Jacobs each concluded that scoring efficiency is extremely important in the modern NBA, and the Thunder run deep and excel on both ends. Any championship hopes depend on sustaining their offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage this season and beyond.