And what awards can Victor Wembanyama win after a stellar rookie season? The San Antonio Spurs sensation should be in the mix for a lot of accolades, especially Defensive Player of the Year -- and remarkably even for the Most Improved Player.
We asked NBA insiders Bobby Marks, Chris Herring and Jeremy Woo to rank their top two choices for each of the NBA's six major awards (including Sixth Man and Coach of the Year), with NBA analyst Neil Paine detailing one sleeper pick to watch this season.
Is it really a stretch to think that Jokic would win this award for the fourth time? Not if he once again averages more than 25 points a game and nearly a triple-double on an effective field goal rate of 60% or better, and not if he stays healthy and continues to be a difference maker on the defensive end. In the aftermath of guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's departure for the Orlando Magic, the Nuggets are going to be more heavily reliant on their rotation, which could mean that Jokic may have to do more to keep Denver in contention. Given that he generally rises to the occasion, expect him to be in the MVP conversation again.
The case for Brunson is the opposite of Jokic's in some ways. He figures to be the beneficiary of a roster shuffle that should provide more space for him on the offensive end. Pick-and-roll defenses will be forced to choose who they want to prioritize: Brunson near the rim or newcomer Karl-Anthony Towns, who has shot nearly 40% from 3-point range over his nine-year career.
Brunson, who finished fifth in MVP voting last season, will also have former Villanova running mate Mikal Bridges, who gets to settle into a secondary playmaking role as opposed to the lead role he was often asked to handle in Brooklyn. If the Knicks win big again this season, Brunson will be in the conversation for the award.
Could Tatum follow up his NBA title and Olympic gold with an MVP? Last season, he had 13 25-point, 10-rebound, 5-assist games, the most in a season in his career and the most by a Celtic since Larry Bird in 1989-90 (15). Tatum has been named to the All-NBA first team three years in a row and finished sixth in MVP voting last season. Despite a slight drop in 3-point attempts from the year before, his percentage was its highest since the 2021-22 season. One thing that should not be a concern is Tatum reaching the 65-game criteria to be eligible, as he has missed only 29 regular-season games since 2017 and has played at least 74 in each of the past three seasons.
The Paris Olympics continued to teach us that we should not take Curry for granted on a big stage. The 2015 and 2016 MVP led Team USA to a gold medal, including his memorable clutch shot in the final against France. Curry should be considered for MVP because of the underdog role he faces this season.
Curry continues to play at an All-NBA level (he earned third team honors last season) but the Warriors are projected to finish outside of the top six in the West. If we see the version of Curry from the 2020-21 season who finished with a career-high 30.2 PPG and Golden State contends for a top seed, expect some "MVP!" chants.
A backcourt player hasn't won MVP since James Harden in 2018. There's a real possibility that will change this season. Gilgeous-Alexander, at age 26 and coming off an MVP runner-up campaign, should be in position to make another exceptional case after averaging 30.1 points on 53% shooting last season. Oklahoma City is well-coached and has an elite supporting cast, and Gilgeous-Alexander could make significant jumps both in 3-point percentage and assists.
Doncic finished third in MVP voting last season and walks into a similarly excellent situation. The Mavericks have continuity, brought in Klay Thompson and built a roster designed to maximize Doncic's elite scoring and playmaking. There's room for them to improve on last season's 50 wins, and a similar campaign could inch Doncic to the top of the voting. It feels inevitable that both Gilgeous-Alexander and Doncic will eventually take home MVP honors in their careers, and while this may admittedly be an unwise hedge against Jokic's perennial dominance, I think this season is shaping up to produce a first-time winner.
Neil Paine's sleeper pick
Ja Morant, G, Memphis Grizzlies: At 7-foot-3 and following his Rookie of the Year campaign, Wembanyama isn't sneaking up on anybody this year, literally or metaphorically. He'll get attention in this category with a year of NBA experience under his belt, but ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) projects the Spurs to win 31 games, so it still might be an uphill climb to the MVP for the second-year star.
A more realistic choice for MVP is Morant, who missed 73 games between suspension and injury last season but whose Grizzlies are projected to improve by 17 games with their top star back this season. Morant has already made an All-NBA second team before, and he could become a trendy MVP choice if the Grizz return to their 50-plus-win level from a few years ago.
Jones was already one of the league's most versatile, impactful defenders. But now the 6-foot-7 center will be able to showcase that ability as a starter for the Pelicans. The 26-year-old, who was named first-team All-Defense last season, is fantastic in one-on-one scenarios, having allowed just 0.71 points per possession in those spots -- a top-five rate among wings last season who defended at least 45 such plays. His length and activity also make him effective in terms of blocking 3-point attempts, an incredibly difficult play for anyone to make, let alone someone who's as impactful as Jones is near the basket.
Anunoby already has the eye-popping metrics to contend for the award. The already-stout Knicks defense gave up a whopping 14.1 points fewer per 100 possessions with Anunoby on the floor -- a bigger difference than the gap between the top-rated Timberwolves' defense and the league-worst Jazz. The real question with the ever-versatile Anunoby is whether he can stay healthy enough to play the minimum 65 games to win it. He has missed at least 29 games in each of the past three seasons.
There are 345 million reasons why Jackson, the winner of the 2022 award, will be motivated to earn this honor again. If Jackson does win again, he will reach the super max criteria and then become eligible to sign a lucrative extension next offseason. The addition of rookie Zach Edey at center should only help the candidacy of Jackson. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Grizzlies were outscored by 7.4 per 100 points per possession last season when Jackson started at center. One hurdle for Jackson could be the 65-game rule to be eligible. In his six seasons, he has reached that threshold just twice.
Adebayo is the anchor of a Heat defense that ranked second in efficiency last season whenever the three-time All-Star was on the court. He is one of seven players to defend at least 175 shots in half-court matchups against guards, forwards and centers. And he held opponents to a 48% effective field goal percentage as the contesting defender, which ranked in the top 10 among players to contest at least 800 shots, according to Second Spectrum.
Wembanyama is going to win this award multiple times in his career. The question is when will be his first, and I don't see why that wouldn't be this season. As a rookie, he finished second in DPOY voting, made first-team All-Defense and led the league in blocks. The Spurs' projections for 2024-25 don't work in his favor, but it'll be exceedingly difficult to make an argument against him as the league's most impactful defender, both from an eye test and statistical perspective.
Adebayo's statistical impact may not be quite as palpable when compared to incumbent winner Rudy Gobert (0.9 blocks compared to Gobert's 2.1 last season), but the Heat's perennial success hinges on Adebayo as the backbone of their scheme. The Heat ranked second in defensive efficiency this season when Adebayo was on the court. Having said that, I'm not sure he ever actually gets a great crack at winning this award as long as Wembanyama is playing.
This is another category where Holmgren will have to work extra hard to shift the attention away from Wembanyama. But in some ways, Holmgren will have advantages working in his favor. While he was a distant second to Wembanyama in block rate a year ago, he contested essentially the same number of inside shots per game, and even held shooters below their usual field-goal percentages to a greater degree. With another year of experience as a rim protector and playing for a Thunder defense that ESPN's BPI projects as the NBA's fourth best (Wemby's Spurs are only 25th), Holmgren should get a chance to directly make an defensive impact on one of the league's title contenders.
The games haven't counted yet, but it's very clear that Edey is going to put up numbers in the minutes he gets. The 7-4 center should receive plenty of playing time, given that he'll be a starter with Memphis alongside fellow big man Jaren Jackson Jr. Edey averaged 12.2 points and 7.2 boards per game during the preseason and will get opportunities on a contending team, making him more visible than his first-year counterparts.
Risacher may have a shot at the award if he ends up looking anything like he did in the preseason. The 6-9 forward has been active on the glass and efficient as a scorer, and his length and athleticism should be helpful to a Hawks defense that ranked 27th last season.
Donte DiVincenzo's arrival to Minnesota means Wolves rookie guard Rob Dillingham won't be featured as much this season, which shrinks my list of ROY candidates to two players: Sheppard and Edey. There was an argument for Sheppard, picked No. 3, to get selected first in the draft. He can play point guard or off the ball and gave a glimpse during the Las Vegas Summer League, when he averaged 20 points and 5.2 assists in four games. One concern is the lack of minutes behind Rockets guards Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green. Last season, VanVleet ranked sixth among all NBA players in minutes.
Edey is a favorite before the season starts because he already has a defined role. The likely starting center in Memphis should lead all rookies in blocks and rebounds. Although the two-time consensus National Player of the Year was limited at summer league with an ankle injury, he has impressed in the preseason. In five games, he averaged 7.2 rebounds and 1 blocked shot in approximately 20 minutes per game.
It looks like Edey will open the season starting for Memphis, giving him a great opportunity to deliver quality play and contribute. If preseason is any indication, a lot of what he's good at is going to translate into production. When he's in the game, you want to throw him the ball. And there just aren't many rookies walking into situations like that. Presuming Edey can maintain a clean bill of health, I think the stats will be there in a season in which there may not be a particularly long list of legitimate candidates.
The French forward is here largely due to questions about what Sheppard's role will be in Houston -- he's going to play, but the Rockets have a lot of players to feature. Risacher, on the other hand, should be ticketed for a huge role, and it's in Atlanta's best interest to play him ahead of guys like DeAndre Hunter. He looks comfortable in the preseason and is somehow flying a little under the radar as the No. 1 pick in the draft. His ability to space the floor, finish plays and guard should be a positive for Atlanta right away.
If the No. 2 overall pick can ever truly be a "sleeper," it's worth at least considering Sarr as a candidate among a draft class that was widely considered subpar by historical standards. Sarr struggled mightily during summer league, averaging just 5.5 PPG on 19.1% shooting (no, that's not a typo) and putting up a pathetic player efficiency rating of of 3.7, which ranked 114th out of 126 qualified rookies. To say he may not currently be ready to perform at a high level in the NBA would be an understatement.
However, it's unclear just how much a four-game sample in Las Vegas ought to weigh against scouts' previous assessments of Sarr, many of which regarded him as the No. 1 prospect of 2024 until just before the draft based on solid projection data. The versatile skills that got Sarr drafted surely count for something, and it probably won't be hard for him to compile minutes and stats as a starter for the Wizards.
It goes without saying that players like Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal will benefit from having a full-fledged point guard in Tyus Jones running the show this season. But so will Allen, who's a fantastic shooter who plays extremely well off the ball while doing a solid job in secondary playmaking spots. It's somewhat odd timing for him to settle into a bench role -- he's coming off a career-best season in almost every key metric, and hasn't been a regular reserve since the 2019-20 campaign -- but he should thrive regardless. If Beal misses considerable time again, Allen would be ready to fill his spot as a starter without problem.
Assuming he bounces back from his preseason hamstring injury, this has the potential to be a huge year for Murphy. Like Allen's situation in Phoenix, Murphy will benefit with the Pelicans finally having a lead guard in Dejounte Murray to spread the ball around. (CJ McCollum was beyond solid handling that, but he, too, should benefit from not having to set up as much offensively.) The beauty of New Orleans' streamlined starting lineup is that Murphy could theoretically replace almost any one of the five starters since there isn't a traditional center among the group. Put another way: He'll have plenty of opportunities to leave his mark.
Before spraining his right MCL in March and missing the final weeks of the regular season, Monk was a favorite for this award, ranking first in points and assists and second on 3-pointers made among all reserves. He still finished second in the voting behind Minnesota's Naz Reid. His 25 games with at least 20 points off the bench this season were 11 more than any player. He's also one of only two players in the past 25 years to have 1,000 points and 300 assists as a reserve, according to ESPN Research.
Like Monk, Mathurin was also in the mix for this award before a right labrum injury in March. Before the injury, Mathurin averaged 19 points on 41.4% from 3 in his last five games. The Pacers' bench, which ranked first in points per game, only improves this season now that Mathurin is healthy. Donte DiVincenzo is another candidate, but his efficiency playing non-starter minutes in Minnesota leaves questions.
This is the hardest award to project, but it's shaping up nicely for DiVincenzo, who could follow up on what new teammate Naz Reid accomplished in his award-winning season. DiVincenzo should be motivated after his trade out of New York, and his versatility to play alongside both Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley in different lineups makes him an excellent fit for major minutes in Minnesota coming off the bench. He had a career year last season (283 3-pointers in 2023-24, third most in the NBA) and should maintain that level of play.
Jaquez seems to be penciled in as the lynchpin of Miami's second unit for the time being. For now, he's behind Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, but his role should continue to grow. He'll improve on his rookie-year stats and be given more to do as a creator. A step forward as a 3-point shooter (32.2%) and development on the defensive end would be meaningful; the question is whether the Heat can afford to bring him off the bench all season.
Caruso's case hinges on whether he'll be disqualified by starting too much for the Thunder. Acquired from Chicago in a June trade for Josh Giddey, Caruso is well known as one of the league's top defenders, and he set a new career high for minutes per game (28.7) last season after mostly coming off the bench in his previous six NBA campaigns. If Caruso starts most of the time over Isaiah Joe, this conversation is moot. But if he comes off the bench, he might statistically be the best player in that category after posting a plus-2.5 estimated RAPTOR last season.
Williams was a deserving candidate and finished fourth in voting for the award last season, when his scoring jumped from 14 points per game to 19 points on improved efficiency, and he had the best field goal percentage (68.3%) in the league among players with at least 40 shot attempts in clutch situations (games within five points with five minutes left). Not bad for a player who could take a bigger leap in his third season.
Nembhard is an unconventional choice, but who could deny the leap he made during the playoffs, when he averaged 21 points and nearly eight assists in the Eastern Conference finals against the eventual-champion Celtics? His shooting efficiency improved quite a bit last season, and it wouldn't be all that surprising if Nembhard -- who, prior to hitting a stone-cold game winner from 32 feet in the series against the Knicks, had mostly been known for his defense -- gets more chances on offense. He's just 24 years old.
Wembanyama was too easy of a choice, so I decided to pick the player selected behind him in the 2022 draft. Miller's progression last season in Charlotte is an indication that the forward should be in consideration for this award. In the last two months of the season, Miller averaged 19.3 points and shot 36.8% on 3-pointers. Getting to the free throw line more often will be another factor in his continued development. He averaged 2.5 free throws per 36 minutes, but did have a three-game stretch late in the season when he totaled 15 attempts from the stripe.
How can a player who signed a five-year, $224 million max extension like Mobley be in consideration for this award? The answer comes with new coach Kenny Atkinson and a likely expanded role on offense. Mobley improved from 32% on jump shots in his first two seasons to 36% last season. He also shot 46% from 3 in the final 12 games of the regular season. Of course, the lack of spacing when Mobley is on the court with Jarrett Allen could derail his continued development offensively.
If you look at the past decade of winners, you'll find that well-established young players often wind up winning this award (which feels almost antithetical to the purpose of this award). Regardless, Wembanyama is in for such a massive statistical leap forward that he'll have a strong case. Last season's 21 points and 10 rebounds, not to mention leading the league in blocks and averaging more than a steal per game -- was the absolute baseline for what he can do. The kid gloves are going to come off quickly as the Spurs didn't bring in Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes just to hold Wembanyama back. An improved team situation will correlate with inevitable upticks in efficiency and shooting volume. This may be a lazy pick, but the improvement across the board is coming and will be hard to ignore.
Johnson shined last season in 56 games and will be a focal point for Atlanta as it tries to work back into the playoff conversation. His versatility, all-around production and fit with Trae Young gives him a chance to be maximized on a team that will need to involve him both as a scorer and playmaker. A star turn could be in the cards. He's one of just six players in NBA history to average at least 16 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 1 3-pointer per game in a season before turning 23.
We'll go two-for-the-price-of-one here with a couple of guys who recently turned 22. Both put up very solid estimated RAPTOR numbers for their age a year ago (Kuminga plus-1.1, Giddey plus-0.8) and both should see even more growth opportunities. Kuminga is probably the safer bet, with potentially a starting role and more touches on the post-Klay Thompson Warriors, along with the ever-present possibility of being asked to fill even more minutes if Draymond Green gets himself suspended again.
Giddey is also projected to start for the Chicago Bulls, though Lonzo Ball's return to action could eat into his playing time. Whatever happens, Giddey remains a coveted all-around talent who averaged nearly 17 PPG, 8 RPG and 6 APG at age 20 just a few years ago. If he returns to that level or expands on it, he'll certainly qualify among the most improved players.
It's not beyond belief that the Timberwolves, fresh off a 56-win campaign and trip to the conference finals, could be even better this season. It remains to be seen how some of the pieces fit together, with DiVincenzo and Julius Randle in and Karl-Anthony Towns with the Knicks. But if Finch, last season's third-place finisher, can make it work quickly and help the club take another step toward its first NBA Finals, expect him to be a frontrunner for the award.
At first blush, Popovich sounds like a wild pick here. But if the Spurs are better than expected and find a way to reach the postseason in Wembanyama's second campaign, it would be yet another remarkable feat for the NBA's winningest coach. Plenty of that credit would belong to Wembanyama and Chris Paul if they mesh well, but Popovich would deserve plenty, too.
Only injuries can derail Spoelstra's chances of being named Coach of the Year. Last season, Miami won 46 games despite ranking fifth in missed games among players and using a franchise-record 35 different starting lineups. This season, 11 out of 14 players returned from last season, including Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro. Spoelstra has never been voted Coach of the Year despite winning two titles in six Finals trips and being named one of the top 15 coaches in NBA history.
Budenholzer was named Coach of the Year in Atlanta (2014) and then again in Milwaukee (2019). In Phoenix, he takes over a roster that won 49 games and returns Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. The Suns' bench ranked last in fourth-quarter offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting last season. Both of those deficiencies should be addressed with veteran Tyus Jones starting at point guard and Grayson Allen now coming off the bench. Jones has averaged fewer than one turnover per game in nine consecutive seasons. Meanwhile, Allen shot a league-high 46.1% on 3-pointers last season.
Jeremy Woo's picks
1. Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves
2. Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers
I expect Minnesota to take a big step forward, with the Towns trade better balancing the roster as the Timberwolves lean more into Anthony Edwards. After winning 56 games last season -- good for only third in a tough West -- Finch will look to get more out of a talented roster and deep bench. He still has the league's No. 1 defense, led by four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.
Atkinson's free-flowing, pass-heavy style might be exactly what the Cavs need in his first year with the team. He inherits a roster that won 48 games and will be tasked with getting even more out of it. That includes better spacing and improved staggering of minutes in the frontcourt between 7-footer Evan Mobley and starting center Jarrett Allen. Atkinson will push to get Mobley the ball and enable him to create mismatches, make plays and be a bigger force within the offense.
Continuing with the theme of Memphis' resurgence, Jenkins will surely get some buzz if Morant and the Grizzlies bounce back from their down 2023-24 season. Jenkins finished sixth in the voting in 2019-20 as Memphis came within a couple of wins of making the playoffs in the 2020 bubble; he also finished second in 2021-22, when Memphis improved by 18 wins and claimed the No. 2 seed in the West, and was 10th in 2022-23, when Memphis posted its second straight 50-plus-win season and grabbed another No. 2 seed. After falling to 27 wins last season with Morant suiting up only nine times, the Grizzlies' win total is expected to be at least in the mid-40s. This award often comes down to year-over-year improvement in a team's record, which means Jenkins is as strong a candidate as anyone else.